What 10 unsold croissants a day really cost you

Every baker knows the bin at closing time. Twelve croissants, half a tray of rolls, a cake that looked hopeful at seven in the morning. You write it off as the cost of doing business. It is, but it has a number, and the number is bigger than most people think.

The visible cost

Say a croissant costs you €0.55 to make: flour, butter, energy, and a share of the hours someone spent laminating dough. Ten unsold croissants are €5.50 a day. Open six days a week and that is about €1,700 a year. For one product. A typical counter carries twenty to forty.

So bake less? Careful. The empty shelf has a cost too, and it is the sneakier one.

The invisible cost

When you throw croissants away, you see them. When you run out at three in the afternoon, nothing happens. The till shows a normal day. What it does not show is the customer who wanted a croissant, bought nothing, and found one at the place around the corner. A missed sale costs you the margin: if that croissant sells for €2.20 and costs €0.55 to make, you lost €1.65. Three times the cost of binning one.

This is why bakers overbake, and the instinct is right. If a leftover costs €0.55 and a missed sale costs €1.65, you should err on the side of too many. The real question is by how much.

The right amount, in plain arithmetic

Compare the two costs. Missing a sale hurts three times more than a leftover, so bake enough that the shelf runs empty only about one day in four. Not never. A croissant shelf that never runs empty is quietly telling you the bin is too full.

The answer changes per product. A cream cake with expensive ingredients and a modest price flips the math: leftovers hurt more, so cut closer to expected demand and accept selling out early. A cheap, high-margin roll flips it the other way. Every product on your counter has its own right amount, and that amount moves with the day of the week.

This calculation, per product and per day, with your own costs and your own sales history, is what MakeBright runs every morning. You can also start smaller: pick your three biggest products and run the numbers above once. Most people find at least one product they have been overbaking for years.